The Geopolitics of Brazil: Highs and Lows of an Eternal Emergent

In the 20th century, Brazil’s internal affairs mirrored the country’s international influence. The combination of political and economic issues has continuously sparked a cycle of foreign policy bursts and slumps.

While the Old Republic was still in place during the first two decades of the 20th century, the 1930s marked the beginning of the Estado Novo. This authoritarian and populist regime was established by Getúlio Vargas in 1937 and collapsed in 1945.

The mid-1940s marked the beginning of the hectic Fourth Republic and the succession of several volatile presidencies. This political era ended with the military coup of 1964.

In 1985, Brazil gained a democratic government, but its economy significantly suffered and was degraded. Throughout the 80s and 90s, Brazil experienced recessions like many other emerging countries. As a result, colossal inflation pushed the government to change the country’s currency from the cruzeiro real, which it only used from 1993 to the real, which was introduced in 1994.

In addition to domestic matters, Brazil’s demographic growth has strongly impacted its geopolitics and geostrategy.

The country’s population size is a huge asset for its international relations. Brazil had a population of 73 million in 1960, 175.9 million in 2000, and 215.3 million in 2022. Today, it is the sixth most populous country in the world, according to the World Population Review.

It was in this economic, political, and demographic context that the 2002 presidential election was held. The election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the rise of the left represented a turning point in Brazil’s modern history.

As a former metalworker and long-time trade unionist, Lula implemented a very ambitious poverty reduction program and a plan to increase literacy.

During Lula’s presidential term from 2003 to 2010, he visited 80 countries. He aspired to place Brazil on equal ground with the United States and Venezuela by maintaining close relations with both George W. Bush and Hugo Chavez, the leaders of those countries.

Lula ran for a second presidential term in 2021 against Jair Bolsonaro and won the 2022 Brazilian general election.

During the past two decades, economic development and internal challenges pushed Brazil to strengthen its place in South America. It aimed to defend its interests worldwide and maintain close relations with the community of Portuguese-speaking countries.

Brazil’s place in South America

In the words of the former diplomat Rubens Ricupero, Brazil’s place in South America could qualify as a “vegetarian dinosaur,” that is, “a relatively rule-abiding and peaceful global actor, a player whose size dwarfs those of its neighbors but who is often benign.”

After decades of antagonisms, rivalries and competition, the 1990s marked the beginning of a new era in South America.

The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) formation in 1991 started the period of integration of South America. The regional integration process initially comprised Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil.

Mercosur agreements and values are founded on economic development and democracy. They revolve around migratory challenges, cultural and labour matters, among many others.

Lula’s first presidential term was marked by his determination in tightening South America’s integration. These types of integrations aim to create a stronger community among a set of nations. Surprisingly, Venezuela joined Mercosur. Venezuela is at odds with many South American countries, so in 2016 Venezuela was suspended from Mercosur.

Bolivia is currently in the process of becoming a Mercosur member, while countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Surinam are part of Mercosur.

In addition to Mercosur, cooperation in South America relies on other communities, such as the South American Defence Council and regional intergovernmental organizations like the Union of South American Nations (UNASUL). The creation of the latter in 2008 aimed to counterbalance the influence of the United States government on individual states.

As stronger integration has been part of Brazil’s international strategy since the 90s, in 2019, former President Bolsonaro reduced the country’s involvement with Mercosur. He strongly opposed Latin American left-wing governments, like those in Venezuela and Cuba.

Brazil’s relations with other countries are also open to tension and disputes. The relations with Uruguay have been subject to border disputes. The 88-year-old dispute of the Vila Thomaz Albornoz village, the Arroio Invernada area of the Quaraí River, and the Brazilian Island of the Quaraí River have mainly been dormant territorial disputes.

Beyond South American Borders

During his presidency, Jair Bolsonaro has built close ties and relations with former American President Donald Trump and was given a major ally status of the United States.

Bolsonaro also bolstered diplomatic ties with Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.  He was sometimes critical of China; however, he could not afford to burn any bridges with Beijing as it is the country’s leading trading partner and represents a third of its investments.

During his 2021 presidential campaign, Lula announced his desire to reinforce historical relations with the United States and the European Union. However, he declared that commercial relations with the European Union must no longer make Brazil only a producer and exporter of raw materials. Brazil no longer wishes to be an economy dependent on the price of materials.

With a size of more than 8 million square kilometers, Brazil is the largest country in South America and is the fifth in the world behind Russia, Canada, China and the United States. This immense territory offers Brazil many riches, like 15 billion barrels of oil reserves, mainly offshore. Brazil ranks 14th in the world in terms of oil reserves, fourth in world reserves of Bauxite, sixth in world reserves of gold, and eighth in world reserves of uranium. In addition, Brazil, traversed by immense rivers, produces more than 60% of its electricity thanks to water dams.

Lula has long advocated that Brazil holds an important presence in the world. Brazil’s numerous embassies, particularly in Africa, allowed the country to have the eighth-largest diplomatic network in the world.

Brazil is also active in the United Nations. It joined a group of four countries, including Japan, India and Germany, which asked for a reformation of the security council to obtain a permanent member seat.

How Brazil leverages the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP)

On July 17, 1996, nine Portuguese countries met at the Lisbon Constitute Summit to create the CPLP. The community comprised Brazil, Angola, Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Portugal, Sao Tome and Principe, and Timor-Leste.

The initiation of CPLP came from José Aparecido de Oliveira, the ambassador of Brazil to Portugal. In 1993, Oliveira traveled to Portuguese-speaking African countries to examine the possibility of creating a community of Portuguese-speaking nations.

CPLP has established three objectives for the success of the community. The community aims to achieve political and diplomatic coordination, foster cooperation, and promote and expand the Portuguese language.

Brazil has fostered an important place within the CPLP. According to the Brazilian Cooperation Agency, in 2017, 5 of the top ten beneficiaries of Brazil’s technical cooperation were members of the CPLP. Those countries comprise Mozambique, Cape Verde, Angola, Guinea-Bissau and East Timor.

The technical cooperation revolves around agriculture, education and urban development.

Among its community members, Brazil’s influence on Timor-Leste is noticeably significant. From an economic standpoint, in 2020 Brazil exported $7.08M to Timor-Leste, with a significant growth of 31% between 2004 and 2020.

Political ties between Brazil and Timor-Leste date from before the latter’s independence. Numerous countries assisted Timor-Leste in state-building, but Brazil went beyond state-building and engaged in cooperation agreements between 2002 and 2010.

The two nations signed agreements in education and technical cooperation in 2002. Then in 2009, an agreement of diplomatic training, military, technical personnel and administrative and defense in 2010.

Conclusion

Brazil has the biggest economy in South America and the ninth-largest economy in the world as of 2022. Brazil has crafted power and influence between its commercial agreements with the European Union, its ties with South American nations and the south-south cooperation mainly through CPLP, Brazil has crafted power and influence.

However, Brazil’s global prominence has been hindered by an internal economic crisis, political turmoil and corruption.

Time will tell whether Lula’s new presidential term will start a new geopolitical era or continue his first term within the current international context.

TAN

@TheAfroNews.Com