Israel-Hamas War: Saudi Arabia’s Challenges Amid the Conflict in the Middle East

On Nov. 11  Riyad was the epicenter of the Arab world as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) hosted a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation for an emergency gathering on Gaza.  

Despite the summit taking place well over a month after the war began, the Crown Prince called for immediate termination of all military operations in Gaza. Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority, said his people have been reeling from the “heinous and ferocious aggression.”   

As the humanitarian situation in Gaza worsens and growing anger sweeps through the Islamic world, the leaders in attendance are navigating the Israel-Hamas war while trying to balance geopolitical interests with national politics. As guardian of the holy places of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia faces challenges unlike any other Middle Eastern country.   

Since his rise to power in 2017, the Saudi Crown Prince has taken geopolitical actions that have, in the eyes of the public, weakened the Kingdom’s support of Palestine. Talk of normalizing relations with Israel has been particularly detrimental to public opinion. These actions have also created a rivalry in the leadership of the Arab world with Saudi Arabia’s arch-nemesis, Iran, and its arch-foe, Turkey.   

Foreign Policy experts have highlighted the discomfort of Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of this war. Particularly, they note the country’s inability to apply tangible pressure and go beyond rhetoric and condemnation.  

Maintaining an influence over Dar al-Islam   

During the Nov. 11 summit, the leaders of Muslim countries attempted to show a united front and speak in one voice. Meanwhile, civilians in their countries have been rallying and expressing outrage over the hostilities in Gaza. However, no public protests have taken place in the Gulf Kingdom as Saudi authorities do not allow any public display of support for the people of Gaza. According to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, assemblies are prohibited in Saudi Arabia. Any individuals who participate in them are threatened with punishment under Sharia law.   

While most authoritarian regimes in the region share a negative opinion on public demonstration, some have allowed Pro-Palestinian protests, using them to consolidate their own power. 

Countries such as Egypt and Bahrain have banned protests and severely punished demonstrators since the Arab Spring pro-democratic movement of 2011. Yet, the Palestinian cause and their people’s animosity for Israel provide a way to increase the popularity of the Egyptian and Bahraini governments.  

Given the monarchical nature of Saudi’s government, public opinion of the defense of Palestine is not a major consideration. Instead, Saudi Arabia’s showcase of defense is mainly directed at  Dar al-Islam, the Islamic world, to help reinforce the country’s leadership across the Muslim world.   

Historically, the Gulf Kingdom had used all its weight to defend the Palestinians and the Arab nations in their feuds with Israel. The 1973 Oil Crisis was launched by Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal in support of Egypt and Syria who fought and lost the Yom Kippur War. Another example was King Fahd’s refusal to endorse the Camp David Accords of 1978. 

It was only in the early 2000s, with King Abdullah, that the rapprochement with Israel became more visible. In 2017, a potential reconciliation was clearly confirmed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite limited concessions from Israel on the statehood for Palestine.  

Today, with a stifled public opinion and a government that was recently in the process of normalizing ties with Israel, the Muslim world has been looking at the Kingdom with perplexity.   

Managing recent ties with Iran   

The joint Islamic-Arab summit also saw the Kingdom’s attempt to manage its recent ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, disagreements about the Palestinian question quickly arose between the two nations, resulting in a power struggle.  

To help Palestinians of Gaza face the Israeli army, the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi wanted to arm Palestinians and place an oil embargo and trade boycott on Israel. MBS disagreed with the proposed solutions.   

Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt did not support the arming of Hamas. In addition, countries who have normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, such as Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco, also refused to adopt Iran’s confrontational path.   

Moreover, the war between Israel and Hamas brings to surface the opposing geopolitical interests of the Persian nation and the Sunni Kingdom. Iran backs Hamas, while Saudi Arabia sees Hamas as a terrorist organization. Iran considers Israel as its second most lethal enemy, after the United States. For Saudi Arabia, the war has violently struck ongoing attempts to normalize its relations with Israel.   

The divergent geopolitical interests do not stop there. Iran has close ties with Hezbollah, while Saudi Arabia shows hostility to Hezbollah and its power in Lebanon. Iran backs the Houthis, while Saudi Arabia has been engaged in an armed conflict with the Houthis in Yemen since 2015.     

Knowing that their relations are fragile, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been carefully managing their differences amid the deflagration in Gaza. The two countries have been at odds for decades and, following a seven year break, their diplomatic relations have recently resumed. Raisi became the first Iranian president to visit Saudi Arabia in 11 years. Currently, the power struggle between Tehran and Riyadh remains.  

Keeping strategic interests in relation to Israel   

During the course of the summit, the Saudi Crown Prince qualified the Israeli operations in Gaza as “ferocious” and “brutal”. In his official statement he said, “We condemn the military aggression targeting civilians in the Gaza strip and the continued violation of international humanitarian law by the Israeli occupation. We stress the necessity of stopping this war and forced displacement, and creating the conditions for return of stability and peace.”   

Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel over the Gaza offensive was clear but there was no mention of the pogrom that Hamas conducted on Oct. 7. Its impact on the Saudi-Israel peace deal was cataclysmic.    

In recent months, the deal was said to be precipitously close to being finalized. In early September, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated at the United Nations General Assembly, “I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough – an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.” He continued and affirmed, “Such a peace will go a long way to ending the Arab Israeli conflict. It will encourage other Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel.”  

The peace deal was being brokered by the United States and would have marked a monumental shift in the geopolitics of West Asia. As events in Gaza worsen and large numbers of Palestinians are being killed, the peace deal has been put to a halt. Despite this stall, mutual strategic interests between the two countries are still alive.   

In 2016, MBS launched a government program that aims to create a social, economic and cultural shift of the Gulf Kingdom called Saudi Vision 2030. MBS placed a significant emphasis on creating a thriving economy through diversification and an expansion of the job market. A key piece to reaching these goals is regional stability and increasing ties with Israel.     

Both Saudi Arabia and Israel still have mutual interests but reviving and safeguarding them post-Oct. 7 is a challenge for both governments.

The opinions expressed by our columnists and contributors are theirs alone and do not inherently or expressly reflect the views of our publication. 

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