Is the Arab League’s Normalization of Syria the Final Blow for Arab Spring

On May 19th, 2023 Bashar Al-Assad landed in the Saudi city of Jeddah to attend the 32nd summit of the Arab League. This attendance marks the return to centre stage for the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Syria had been suspended from the Arab League in 2011 following the bloody repression of a vastly popular protest movement.   

According to the United Nations, the 12-year Syrian civil war has resulted in the death of more than 400,000 and has driven another 5.6 million out of the country. The Assad regime has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.    

During the summit, Assad declared: “There is an added hope amid the Arab regional and international rapprochement brought in by this summit which I hope will signal a new face in Arab coordination and solidarity among us, and peace and prosperity in our region, instead of war and destruction.”  

Merissa Khurma is the program director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She has been closely following the Syrian civil war and its consequences for the Middle East. With her, we discussed some of the possible ramifications of the Arab League’s decision.  

As Syria re-enters the Arab League, experts argue that the Assad regime can no longer be toppled. Does this rehabilitation mark the end of the Arab Spring?  

The re-entry of Syria into the Arab League sends a clear signal to governments worldwide that Assad is here to stay and that he has in fact “won.” The political processes that were set in place to end the conflict in Syria have not gained any traction. Without America’s proactive direction and leadership on this front, it seems that maintaining some form of “stability” has become the end goal for many regional governments. This does not mean the “Arab Spring” has come to a close. The Arab uprisings had a clearly defined beginning, but they are still in flux. The protests and movements we saw unfolding in 2019/2020 in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq are proof that the challenges driving people to the streets have not yet been addressed. The latest developments in Syria represent a monumental setback for those who believe in change, democratization and human rights across the region. However, it does not mark the end.  

What are Assad’s geopolitical priorities as he re-enters the Arab League?  

The economic situation in Syria is dire and, given the destruction the country has witnessed, Assad will need support from across the region to reboot and rebuild. However, it remains to be seen whether re-entry to the Arab League translates to full normalization or investment in Syria’s rebuilding.  

How does Assad’s renewed relationship with the Arab League factor in the United States’ strategy in Syria?  

This creates some tension with the United States given its position on re-engaging Assad, particularly with its key allies in the region. It remains to be seen how this will play out further, especially given the regional positioning related to Russia since the conflict in Ukraine started, as well as the “togetherness” with China.  

Crowne Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been a strong advocate for Syria’s reintegration to the Arab League. What are the main motivations behind his actions? What is he hoping to get from Assad?  

It’s very much about regional power posturing, but also linked to the novel Saudi approach to reduce risk, as they are doing with Iran mainly on Yemen. Iran is also in Syria and has a strong link to the Assad regime. As such, it is linked to reducing tensions and taking the lead on regional challenges that the “West” and namely, the United States, have left unresolved. That is how it is seen by Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council.  

What does this event say about the Arab League itself? For decades, the league has been accused of being inefficient and powerless. Does this event mark a shift in the role of the league in the Middle East?   

At this point, re-entry to the Arab League is symbolic at best. It does not necessarily shift its role to being an efficient and powerful regional body. It remains to be used at the direction of regional powers if it is needed. Given the tectonic regional shifts on the geopolitical and geoeconomic fronts in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the various relationships with Great Powers, the Arab League remains a platform for some of these developments  

  TAN

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