Ethiopia celebrates the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while its neighbours worry about their water supplies from the Nile.
Back in August 2020 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had predicted that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located on the Blue Nile would be filled with 13.5 billion cubic metres by August 2021. However, a large rainfall in the Blue Nile basin has accelerated the filling and thrust the East African nation one step closer to building the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.
On July 19, Seleshi Bekele the Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy of the Eastern African country announced in a series of tweets:
“Today, 19th July, 2021, the GERD reservoir reached overtopping water level. Currently, the incoming flow passes through both bottom outlets and overtopping. This year also we are experiencing extreme rainfall in the Abbay Basin (Blue Nile Basin). As a result, the GERD reservoir has filled rapidly. #GERD is an Ethiopian hydropower dam and guardian infrastructure asset for the downstream countries against #climate change. It is also a means to develop further and prosper together, it can never be a threat! The next milestone for GERD construction is to realize the early generation in the next few months. Congratulations to people of Ethiopia!”
As Ethiopia rejoiced on completing this milestone, tempers began to flare in its downstream neighbours, Egypt and Sudan.
In early July, the Egyptian government officially rejected the second phase of the GERD filling, explaining that it constitutes a significant threat to its water security, agricultural livelihood and electricity.
The UN Security Council met on July 8 to take on this serious regional dispute over what experts consider the control of the oldest river in the world.
“Each of the countries sharing the Nile waters has both rights and responsibilities,” said Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, Special Envoy of UN Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa, after the UN meeting.
“The use and management of this natural resource requires the continued engagement of all nations involved, in good faith, with a view to reaching common ground,” Onanga-Anyanga said.
Why is the GERD so important to Ethiopia?
Dams are a way to control the Nile, and the GERD location gives Ethiopia a significant advantage in this high stakes power struggle.
Boston University professor James McCann is specialized in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. His teachings and research include the ecology of the Blue Nile and historical ecology. He closely follows Ethiopia’s progress on the dam construction.
“Until recently Ethiopians did not have the technical abilities or the resources to build the dam,” explained McCann.
The construction of the GERD began in April 2011. It’s located in the Blue Nile in western Ethiopia, 30 km from the Sudanese border, in the Benishangul-Gumuz region.
The dam is composed of a twin reservoir. According to the Ethiopian Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, the main dam spans 1,780 square kilometres and has a 155 metre-high wall. The second auxiliary dam is a rock and concrete reservoir 55 metre-high and 4,800 metres in length.
In July 2020, Ethiopia completed the first phase of filling the dam and reached its goal of testing the first two turbines by filling 4.9 billion cubic metres.
Owned and managed by the Ethiopian Electric Power company, the GERD can store 75 billion cubic metres and create 6,450 MW of energy. Upon its completion, it is estimated to be among the top ten largest hydroelectric power plants in the world and the largest one in Africa.
The Ethiopian government plans to sell the surplus of electricity from the dam to neighboring countries, and in doing so will become Africa’s largest energy exporter. The surplus of electricity will be approximately 2,000 MW.
In addition to the power provided, a new commercial network around the dam will create numerous employment opportunities.
“We are building a reservoir to store water that will generate electricity. After hitting the turbines, the water continues to flow in the downstream,” explained Minister Bekele, following the UN Security Council meeting of July 8.
“GERD is actually a people’s project. All walks of Ethiopians are contributing to building this dam to bring light home to 65 million people who are currently living in darkness,” Bekele said.
The financing of the construction of the dam comes from a variety of sources. According to the Africa Renewal information programme, these sources include local taxes, donations and government bonds. This financing sparks a strong emotional connection between the dam and the people.
The building of the dam indicates that Ethiopians embrace the power that the Blue Nile gives them over the totality of the river – despite the history of Sudan and Egypt’s upper hand on what goes on in the Nile.
Who really controls the Nile?
The dynamics around the control of the Nile are deeply rooted in the colonial era.
In 1929, Egypt signed with the British Empire the Nile Waters Agreement. As the representative of Tanzania, Sudan, Kenya and Uganda, Britain granted Egypt the right to the waters of the Nile and the power to overthrow the irrigation projects that could affect its share of the Nile.
Egypt’s predominance over the control of the Nile was enormously beneficial to Britain and its need for cotton.
A second agreement about the Nile was signed between Egypt and Sudan in 1959. This agreement gave Sudan an annual share of 22 per cent of the 84 billion cubic metres measured by Egypt’s Aswan High Dam. While Egypt had an annual allocation of 66 per cent.
Both agreements snubbed Ethiopia.
Finally, by 1999, the ten Nile Basin countries: Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Burundi signed an intergovernmental partnership called the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The goal of the NBI is to provide coordination and consultation among the Nile Basin nations and attempt to tackle the major disputes between them.
These various agreements and initiatives reveal a historical dominance of Egypt over the Nile. However, the GERD represents this power dynamic shifting.
“Sudan and Egypt are concerned that Ethiopia could possibly control the water of the Nile and that’s a really threatening possibility,” said McCann.
What are the points of contention?
The points of contention between Ethiopia on the one hand and Egypt and Sudan on the other come from various elements but mainly on how quickly the GERD is filled.
For the past ten years, the countries involved actively tried to find a mutually beneficial agreement, and various scenarios of the filling of the dam were considered.
The best-case scenario for Egypt would have been if Ethiopia filled the GERD over 21 years. The worst-case scenario for Egypt was if Ethiopia had filled the dam over three years.
In the first scenario, Egypt would lose less than 2.5 per cent of its agricultural area and a water deficit of 3 billion cubic metres. And for the worst scenario, Egypt would lose 27 billion cubic metres annually, and 67 per cent of its agricultural area would be lost.
The Egyptian government’s primary goal is to secure its 55.5 billion cubic metres share of the Nile.
Sudan, just like Egypt, is worried about its intake of the Nile River. The GERD will cause the blockage of a large amount of silt, leading to the impoverishment of Sudan’s fertile land.
Despite the concerns of its neighbours, Ethiopia’s goal is to fill the dam over three to five years.
The severity of the dispute between the three nations mainly lies in the intense demography of the region and within the Nile Basin.
According to the Al Jazeera news organization, as of 2020, 95 per cent of the Egyptian population live along the Nile. Sudan and Ethiopia’s population account for 85 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively.
Conclusion
The conflict over the GERD goes beyond national politics and geopolitics. The importance of the Nile in the life of everyday people is unmeasurable. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan are trying to defend their peoples’ interests.
The GERD has put Ethiopia on a trajectory to long term development and sustainable growth. Some experts consider that it’s at the expense of its downstream neighbours. Ethiopia’s control of the Blue Nile gives them leverage that Egypt and Sudan cannot disregard. The completion of the second phase of the filling of the dam has severely escalated the discord between the three nations.
