This picture has been taken in Zimbabwe, Harare by Wallace mawire. Tree planting is key to climate change mitigation.Women in Africa taking positive action.
Shift of some natural regions being experienced as a result
BY WALLACE MAWIRE The Afro News HARARE
A presentation by Dr Prisca Mugabe, Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of Zimbabwe made at the launch of the state of the World Population report for 2009 titled Climate Change in Zimbabwe:its scope and impact notes that climate change is anticipated to have sectoral impacts affecting environment,agriculture and food security,health,water resources,economic activities,human migration and physical infrastructure.
Climate change is the alteration of the earth’s climate caused by the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide as a result of human activity.
This eventually leads to global warming where the temperatures of the earth’s surface have risen by 0.74 degrees celsius in the past 100 years.According to climatologists, if recent trends continue or accelerate as per scientific prediction, the earth’s temperature may rise by 4 to 6 degrees by 2100.Other causes of climate change are due to combustion of fossil fuels,deforestation and modern farming methods for example fertilizer use.
Dr Mugabe notes effects of climate change as reflected in rainfall pattern changes in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2005.She says that there have been noteable shifts in the onset of the rains,increased frequency of heavy rainfall events,increased proportion of low rainfall years,increased proportion of tropical cyclones reaching high intensity,drizzle weather events have declined,mid-term dry spells have become more frequent and intense and to summarise, there are more changes in pattern than amounts, Dr Mugabe says.
She adds that sectoral impacts are beginning to be witnessed like on the environment due to exposure to extreme weather events resulting in droughts and floods,expansion of semi-arid areas for example shift of some natural regions,stations like Chinhoyi,Chibero and their surroundings formerly in natural region 2 now classified under natural region 3,reduction and the reduced size of natural region 1,natural region 2 has been pushed further east,natural region 3 has shifted slightly upwards for example kwekwe and surroundings now classified as natural region four.
Ecosystem changes are being noted as evidenced by grasslands shifting to shrubby savanna including biodiversity changes.
On agriculture and food security, crop yields in marginal zones have become more variable.Yields from rain-fed agriculture are expected to have reduced by up to 50% by 2020.
Dr Mugabe notes that climate change introduces greater variability in maize yields.She adds that there is a strong likelihood that climate change will make natural region 4 a non-maize producing area.
Reduced livestock production is anticipated as a result of reduced forage base for cattle, increase of pests and diseases like tsetse flies and ticks.A shift to smaller browsing animals like goats is anticipated.A reduced productivity of crop-livestock systems of marginal rural areas is anticipated due to climatic changes.
On the health sector, an increase in malnutrition and consequent disorders with implications on child growth and development is anticipated including increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases.Also an increase in the distribution of the malaria-bearing Anopheles gambiae mosquito is said to be likely.
High elevation areas currently on the fringes of endemic malaria zones will be most susceptible to infestation including increased deaths,disease and injury due to heat waves,floods.storms,fires and droughts.
Dr Mugabe notes that the implications are a burden on health care systems.On water resources challenges of availability and accessibility are anticipated particularly affecting women.Reduced irrigation output execerbated by other stressors for example deforestation and siltation.
Changes in hydrology and run-off for example at Lake Manyame upper catchment are forecasted.Economic impacts expected from climate change include increased food prices,diversion of resources towards relief,loss of employment opportunities and compromised hydro-based industries.For example at Lake Kariba from 1987 to 2005 lake surface temperatures rose by about 1 degree celsius including significantly reduced kapenta fish catches.
On the Zambezi river noted impacts have been reduced flow affecting hydro-electricity generation,biodiversity impacts affecting fish-breeding conditions and tourism.
Climate change in Zimbabwe is also anticipated to affect human migration resulting in localised population concentrations posed by climate variability.
A new set of refugees may migrate into new settlements to seek new livelihoods and place additional demands on infrastructure and ecosystem services.Dr Mugabe notes that a variety of migration patterns could thus emerge for example repetitive migrants and short term shock migrants with implications for ecosystems and land use alterations.
She says that physical infrastructure could be prone to damage and destruction due to extreme events such as floods posing an extra burden on the government.On climate change and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) attainment, Dr Mugabe notes that eradication of extreme poverty is unlikely due to reduced agricultural production.
Attaining primary education will be impossible due to gender imbalances and drop-outs.Reducing child mortality will be an uphill task due to increased diseases and combating major diseases like HIV and AIDs will be a major problem due to increased pressures and food security.
Dr Mugabe adds that there is need for institutional support for research to understand local risks,sensitivities,adaptation options in response to climate change.She also recommends research on indigenous knowledge with science,gender variabilities and appropriate systems.
She notes that innovative technologies like water harvesting and soil water conservation,grain post harvest technologies have to be introduced including sending appropriate messages on extension,infrastructural development and disaster management.
Dr Mugabe concludes by saying that climate change in Zimbabwe is most certain,unreliable and unpredictable.”Its impacts are multifaceted with multiple additional stressors such as poverty and land degradation,” she says.
She adds that there is need for multifaceted responses that address context.
