Afghanistan: The Taliban Spark A New Regional Order

The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan ceased to exist on August 15 with the departure of former President Ashraf Ghani. As the Taliban seized Kabul without a shred of resistance, scenes of chaos and panic ripped through the country. Now, thousands of Afghans are trying to reach Kabul’s airport, which the United States of America control, while others leave Afghanistan on foot to neighbouring countries.

Despite 20 years of civilian governance building, military training, economic development and social initiatives, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan collapsed like a sandcastle.

Deemed by analysts as the most significant geopolitical and military debacle for the Americans and NATO, the chaotic withdrawal of the Americans in Afghanistan marks the end of an era. 

While western countries have closed their embassies and are trying to evacuate their citizens, for Afghans who worked with westerners, and other asylum seekers, the desperation to leave their country rages on. Many speculate on what regional powers are ready to cooperate with the new Taliban regime.

Who will fill the regional vacuum left by Western powers?

Since the 19th century, Afghanistan has been a country that shelters various interests for its neighbours. And for the past 20 years, the raging war has increased interests and concerns.   

Regional powers have engaged in conversations with the Taliban government and are likely to have a critical role in Afghanistan.

Seyed Ali Hosseini is pursuing a PhD in Global Governance at the Balsillie School of International Affairs. He wrote several books about Afghanistan, including Institutionalization of Human Rights in Afghanistan and Public Order and Rule of Law in Islam.

Hosseini has been closely observing the roles that key powers will have in the region. 

“Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan and Persian Gulf countries have some interest in Afghanistan and want to have some influence in the country,” explained Hosseini. “The departure of US forces and its allies, provided in a vacuum environment that these countries want to fill, to alleviate the concerns over the rise of extremist groups in the country and the fear of a generalised conflict in the region.” 

Hosseini also explained that the concerns go beyond military and security aspects — there are also economic concerns.

“They’re also calculating their interests, including resources that Afghanistan has, and its grounds for connectivity between South East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East,” he said.

What are the different layers of Afghan-Pakistani relations?

In the 19th century, German writer and politician Ludwig von Rochau, introduced the term Realpolitik. It’s defined on how international relations strongly rely on pragmatism and realism. In the study of international politics, realism is how each nation can defend its interests.

Pakistan is in line with this tradition of realpolitik.

According to experts, Pakistan finds itself in a deadly embrace. On the one hand, they used the Afghan Taliban to sabotage the Western-backed government and Afghan army.  But they’re allied with the United States. They are supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and battling the ones in Pakistan.

The Pakistani foreign policy toward Afghanistan articulates itself around various elements. But the main two reasons behind Pakistan’s constant meddling, according to analysts and experts, are due to the Afghan-Pakistan border dispute and Pakistan’s use of Afghanistan in its rivalry with India.

The disputed Afghan-Pakistani border, also known as the Durand Line, has been an issue for over a century. The border divides the ethnic Pashtuns, with residents on either side of the border. As Hosseini described, key events in the 20th century have increased the gravity of this border dispute.

“When Pakistan took its independence, Afghanistan initially rejected the inclusion of Pakistan in the United Nations because they didn’t recognize the long border between the two countries,” explained Hosseini. “They wanted some level of independence for Pashtuns in Pakistan.” 

Since then, both Afghanistan and Pakistan have interfered in each other’s internal affairs to win the border dispute.   

With the Taliban takeover, the recognition of the Afghan-Pakistani border is back to forefront. In the months to come, it will be a priority for President Imran Khan.

Pakistan’s rivalry with India is also at the core of its attitude in Afghanistan. 

“India has always accused Pakistan of training and supporting Jihadis who fight India in the Kashmir region,” said Hosseini. “So this is an issue that also gives context for why Pakistan wants to influence Afghanistan or even take control and train some extremist groups for a potential war or conflict with India.” 

In addition to these factors, Pakistan’s water supply from the Kabul River is a concern.

The Indian government had committed to building a hydropower dam on the Kabul River basin with the previous Afghan government, but Pakistanis are against a dam which would prevent water from coming into their country.

Demography is also a major component in the future of Afghan-Pakistan relations. Pakistan is the first destination of Afghans fleeing their country. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Pakistan received 1.44 million registered Afghan refugees as of February 2021.

What economic interests does China want to secure in Afghanistan?

It’s in a panic that Western powers are leaving Afghanistan. However, there’s neither chaos nor evacuation at the Chinese embassy in Kabul, and diplomatic personnel don’t intend to leave the Afghan capital.

On August 18, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian declared in a press conference: “As a friendly neighbour and sincere friend of Afghanistan, China has always pursued a policy of friendship with all Afghan people. From the past, to the present, or in the future, this policy will not change.”

Last July, the Chinese authorities welcomed a Taliban delegation in Beijing.

Afghanistan and China are neighbours and share a common border. The two countries mainly trade through the Wakhan corridor. For several years Beijing has been investing in Afghanistan, particularly in its minerals and rare earth metals, estimated at nearly 1000 billion USD.

One example of China’s investment is the Mes Aynak Copper Mine, located in Logar province, 40 km southeast of Kabul. The mine is estimated to contain approximately 450 million metric tonnes of ore, worth 50 billion USD.

How is Russia seeking ‘constructive’ talks with the Taliban?

Just like China, Russia did not wait for the victory of the Taliban to advance its pawns as well.

Russia has not closed its embassy in Kabul. Moscow plans to repatriate only a handful of diplomats out of the roughly 100 people who make up its staff.

Dmitri Jirnov, the Russian ambassador in Kabul declared: “The meeting was positive and constructive. Taliban officials have said their organization has a friendly and pleasant approach to Russia. They confirmed the security of the embassy to us.”

The rapprochement between Russia and the Taliban was made public in November 2018. During this conference, the leaders of the fundamentalist movement were invited for the first time to Russia and engaged in talks with the Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov. The minister who, today, wishes to continue the negotiation.

How is Turkey attempting to secure its borders from a wave of Afghans refugees?

Unlike Russia, until a few weeks ago, Turkey saw the return of the Taliban from a negative perspective. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now reaching out to the Taliban.   

Ankara wants an open dialogue with Kabul to prevent the arrival of Afghan migrants who are fleeing to Turkey. The reluctance of the Turkish government to accommodate refugees stems from massive waves of Syrian refugees that crossed the Turkish border for the past 10 years. UNHCR estimates 3.7 millions registered Syrian refugees in Turkey.

President Erdogan declared: “Turkey is facing the new wave of Afghan refugees passing through Iran. We must make every effort to bring stability to the region, especially in Afghanistan.” 

Turkey is currently building a wall at its border, but it might not prevent Afghan refugees from coming to Turkey. 

Conclusion

The fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban has turned Southeast Asia and Central Asia into a powder keg.

The evacuation of the United States and its allies is leading to the restructuring of the regional order. Pakistan is building political ties, China is securing business interests, Russia is engaged in talks, and Turkey is trying to avoid the refugee waves. Other countries worth mentioning, such as Iran and India, are also treading carefully.

In the next weeks, the Taliban will develop further their dealings with their neighbours. They will reveal to the world their take on geopolitics and geostrategy.

TAN